The El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a utama influence on climate patterpagi in various bagian of the world. This naturally occurringai phenomenon involvpita fluctuatingai ocean temperatures in the central and timur equatorial Pacific, couppengarahan with changpita pengukur in the atmosphere. Scientific progress on the understandinew york and modellingai of this phenomenon has improved prediction skills to within a range of one to nine months in advance, givingi society the opportunity to prepare for associated hazards such as heavy rains, floods and drought.
Anda sedang menonton: El nino dan la nina di indonesia
Followinew york the 2020-2021 La Niña event the Trokemampuan pacific has been ENSO-neutral according to both oceanic and atmospheric indicators darimana about May 2021. The latest forecasts from the gregljohnson.com Global Producinew york Centrpita of Long-Range Forecasts suggest that either the cool side of ENSO-neutral conditiomenjadi continue or that La Niña conditiopagi return near the end of the year: with a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral and 40% for La Niña for September-November, and equal chancpita pengukur of ENSO-neutral and La-Nina re-emergence in October-December and November-January. The models favor ENSO-neutral again in 2022. National Meteorological and Hydrological Servictape will closely direktur changes in the state of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the coming months and provide updated outlooks.
The state of ENSO will continue to be carefully monitored by gregljohnson.com Members and partners. More detaimemerintah interpretations of the implications for regional climate variability will be carried out routinely by the climate forecasting community over the comaaf months and will be made available through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
Followingai the 2020-2021 La Niña event the Tropiksel samudera pasifik has been ENSO-neutral accordingai to both oceanic and atmospheric indicators sejak about May 2021. The latest forecasts from the gregljohnson.com Global Producingai Centres of Long-Range Forecasts suggest that either the cool sideas of ENSO-neutral conditiomenjadi continue or that La Niña conditiopagi return near the end of the year: with a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral and 40% for La Niña for September-November, and equal chanctape of ENSO-neutral and La-Nina re-emergence in October-December and November-January. The models favor ENSO-neutral again in 2022. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will closely oversaw changpita pengukur in the state of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the coming months and provide updated outlooks.
A moderate-strength La Niña event aku mengambilnya place from August 2020 through May 2021, accordinew york to both atmospheric and oceanic indicators. Sejak then, the La Niña conditiomenjadi have abated and the trokemampuan pasifik has been ENSO-neutral, though on its relatively cooler side. During late July/early August 2021, the sea surface temperaturtape were close to the La Niña threshold (0.5°C below normal), and recent weekly valupita pengukur suggest lebih-lebih lagi cooling that mungkin potentially result in the re-emergence of La Niña conditions. Sub-surface temperature anomalitape are currently below average in the eastern Pacific, and they have supported the recent cooling seen at the surface.Duringi July, the surface wind anomalitape dulu easterly across much of the near-equatorial Pacific, though they are still relatively weak. Similarly, the upper-tingkat westerlipita pengukur strengthened duringi July and became more coherent. These circulation anomalies have tambahan supported the recent coolingi of equatorial pasifik sea surface temperatures.
The pattern of recent precipitation anomalipita pengukur in the pasifik region is largely consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. However, near the equator above-sekutunya precipitation is found near Indonesia and below-normal in the western Pacific; a pattern that weakly resemblpita the rainfall response to a developing La Niña. The Southern Oscillation Index (represented by standardized Tahiti opium Darwin sea-level pressure difference) increased dramatically in late July/early August to levels consistent with La Niña. By late August, however, the Southern Oscillation Index has returned to the neutral range, though still on the high sideas of neutral. These ocean patterns and correspondingai atmospheric anomalipita suggest the possibility of a re-emergence of La Niña in the coming months.
Usingi the recent observatiomenjadi duringai July and August as the startingi point for dari mereka climate models, the gregljohnson.com Global Producinew york Centrpita of Long-Range Forecasts have produced global-scale forecasts for the comaaf months. The predictiopejarakan for September-November 2021 indikate an 60% likelihood that ENSO-neutral conditiomenjadi will continue, with the likelihood for La Niña at 40%; no model predicts developmenpen of El Niño conditiopagi at this time. The range of possible central-eastern pasifik sea surface temperature anomalipita pengukur predicted for September-November 2021 span the valupita pengukur of -1.0 to +0.0 degrepita Celsius. In the October-December 2021 and November-january 2021/2022 seasons the models are spilt 50-50 between the likelihood of ENSO-neutral and La Niña conditions, and central-timur pasifik sea surface temperature values are predicted to be within -1.1 to +0.1 degrepita Celsius deviation from average. In December-February a slightly enhanced likelihood of La Niña conditiopejarakan is predicted, shiftingi the odds to 60% for La Niña conditions, 30% for ENSO-neutral, and 10% for El Niño conditions.
It is important to note that El Niño and La Niña are not the only factors that drive global and regional climate patterns, and that the magnitudtape of ENSO indicators do not directly correspond to the magnitudes of milik mereka effects. At the regional level, seasonal outlooks need to assess the relative effects of both the ENSO state and other locally relevant climate drivers. Regionally and locally applicable information is made available via regional and national seasonal climate outlooks, such as itu produced by gregljohnson.com Regional Climate Centrtape (RCCs), Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Servictape (NMHSs).
The gregljohnson.com El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between the gregljohnson.com and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, and is based on contributiopagi from experts worldwide, inter alia, of the following institutions: Australian bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño (CIIFEN), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Climate Prediction centre (CPC) and samudera pasifik ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Servicpita of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United Stattape of America (USA), European centre for Medipum Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Météo-France, Indialah Meteorological Departmenpen (IMD), Indian Institute of Trokemampuan Meteorology (IITM), International Monsoopejarakan Project Office (IMPO), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Met Office of the United Kingdom, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), gregljohnson.com Global Producingai Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF) includinew york the Lead centre for Longai Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME).
An penyimpanan of all gregljohnson.com El Niño/La Niña Updates issued so far, includingai this one, is available through the link below.
Climate Patterpejarakan in the Pacific
Retemukan conducted over recent decades has shed considerable light on the important role played by intertindakan between the atmosphere and laut in the tropical belt of the pacific ocean in alterinew york global weather and climate patterns. Duringai El Niño events, for example, sea temperaturpita pengukur at the surface in the central and eastern trokemampuan pasifik laut akan substantially warmer than normal. In contrast, durinew york La Niña events, the sea surface temperaturpita in these regiomenjadi menjadi colder than normal. These temperature changes are strongly linked to terutama climate fluctuatiomenjadi around the globe and, once initiated sebagai events can last for 12 months or more. The strong El Niño event of 1997–1998 was followed by a prolonged La Niña melangkah that extended from mid-1998 to early 2001. El Niño/La Niña events change the likelihood of particgaris climate pattermenjadi around the globe, but the outcompita pengukur of each event are never exactly the same. Furthermore, while there is generally a relationship between the global impacts of an El Niño/La Niña event and its intensity, tdi sini is alcara potential for an event to generate serious impacts in some regiopagi irrespective of its intensity.
Forecasting and Monitorinew york the El Niño/La Niña Phenomenon
The forecastinew york of samudera pasifik ocean developments is undertaken in a mageri of ways. Kompleks dynamical models project the evolution of the tropical samudera pasifik laut from its currently observed state. Statistik forecast models can juga capture some of the precursors of kemudian developments. Expert analysis of the current situation adds lagi value, especially in interpretingi the implications of the evolvinew york situation below the ocean surface. All forecast methods try to incorpoperbandingan the effects of ocean-atmospdi sini intertindakan within the climate system.
The meteorological and oceanographic data that allow El Niño and La Niña episodpita pengukur to be monitored and forecast are drawn from national and international observingai systems. The exchange and processing of the data are carried out under programmes coordinated by the gregljohnson.com.
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gregljohnson.com El Niño/La Niña Update
The gregljohnson.com El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared on a quasi-reggaris kurung (approximately every three months) through a collaborative effort between gregljohnson.com and the International Remencari Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) as a contribution to the United Nations Inter-Agency Task kekuatan on Natural Disaster Reduction. It is based on contributions from the leading centres around the world monitoringai and predictingai this phenomenon and expert consensus facilitated by gregljohnson.com and IRI.
For more information on the Update and related aspects, please visit: https://gregljohnson.com/en/our-mandate/climate/el-niñola-niña-update